Dude, Here Comes Dell -- A Channel Perspective
Dell apparently lost its religion about the channel before saying so in a memo from Michael Dell to employees last Wednesday. (Click here to read the entire memo [requires a subscription to the Wall Street Journal], or click here to read the coverage of the memo.) Here at Channel Maven Central, we've learned that last month (the same month during which Michael Dell told Duke MBA students that "the direct model is not a religion"), Dell hired at least one channel professional with a good pedigree into what seems to be Dell's growing channels organization. It's been a dirty little secret for years that Dell has derived as much as twenty percent of its annual revenue through the channel. (We think it's more like fifteen percent, but why quibble?) In the past, Dell's movement in the channel was driven by pull, and now there'll be a little push. How much push, though, is anybody's guess. Dell doesn't have much room to maneuver here. The Dell model was built around a negative cash-conversion cycle, which eschewed inventory. We agree with Ed Moltzen that having credible channel programs will require Dell to adopt a new attitude to inventory. Likewise, Dell's gross-margin profile (about 17% vs HP's 24%) means investment in channel programs will be difficult. Dell has hinted that projected savings in operations will be invested in the channel and innovation, but the company hasn't done much in either area--the late unlamented white-box server program had an afterthoughty feel to it, and the company has stuck to its position as a technology aggregator and fast follower throug its history. Since there's probably not much to be wrung out of operations, we wonder where the silver bullet is. We believe the financial markets are good judges of strategic credibility, and currently, investors are willing to pay $1.26 for every dollar of HP's revenue, while they're only willing to pay $0.96 for every dollar of Dell's revenue (on a ttm basis.) Since investors classically look to future results to justify their investment decisions, the wisdom of this crowd seems to be that the smart bet in the computing business is not today's Dell. It's going to be an interesting ride, which should ultimately be good for the channel and end users.

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